Nifty: Nifty likely to stay range bound in 19,300-19,700: Analysts

The market is likely to keep traders on their toes this week with Nifty expected to swing in 19,300-19,700 range.
Breakouts from this zone can take the index to 20,000-20,200 on the upside or 19,000-18,800 on the downside, according to technical analysts. ACC, Sun Pharma, TCS, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Atul, Jubilant Food, IDBI Bank and Metropolis are good buying opportunities at current levels, said analysts.


Where is Nifty headed this week?
The index witnessed profit booking at higher levels last week and retested support zone at 19,300, which is the confluence of a 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the prior upward rally (18,647-19,991) and 34-day exponential moving average (EMA) level. Buying interest was visible in pharma and IT stocks, along with relative outperformance displayed by midcap and smallcap indices which have surged 1% and 1.5%, respectively. Chart patterns suggest the zone of 19,300-19,350 will act as a strong support going forward. Till the index sustains above the level of 19,300, we may witness a rebound up to the level of 19,750-19,800. However, if the index slips below 19,300, profit booking up to 19,050-18,900 could be witnessed. Options data suggest a broader trading range of 19,250-19,800 for this week.

What should investors do?
We expect the index to consolidate in the coming week, with stock-specific action to continue. Select stocks from the pharma, auto, mid- & large-cap IT as well as CPSE Index will outperform going ahead with positive trade set-up visible in select large-cap names such as ACC, Sun Pharma, TCS and Tech Mahindra. On the mid-cap front, stocks like Apollo Tyres, Coforge, Dixon, Info Edge, REC and Ashok Leyland could continue to witness strong buying interest.


Where is Nifty headed this week?
We are not completely out of the woods yet. Technically speaking, the Nifty slipped and closed below the 20-day EMA for the first time since March 31, 2023, and we are placed slightly below this. So, until Nifty surpasses 19,550- 19,600 on a closing basis, one should avoid being complacent. Ideally, it’s better to avoid aggressive trades. In case of further global aberration, the Nifty may go back to challenge 19,400 – 19,300 levels, and a move below this would reinforce the selling pressure to slide towards the next important cluster of 19,000 – 18,800. On an optimistic scenario, a move beyond 19,600 is crucial, with global things subsiding completely.

What should investors do?
Stock-specific approach remains pragmatic; hence, it is better to focus on individual movers. We like Jubilant Food for the week. Since prices moved sharply on Friday, we recommend buying around Rs 510 for a trading target of Rs 545. The stop loss can be placed at Rs 491. Also, IDBI Bank is poised for a good move the way it performed recently. In the week gone by, prices not only challenged their multi-month highs but also managed to surpass them with ease. Traders can buy around Rs 62 for a nearterm target of Rs 69. The stop loss can be placed at Rs 59


Where is Nifty headed this week?
Nifty had a strong rally in the July series but faced resistance near the 20,000 levels and corrected 700 points from there. FIIs have become sellers in the cash segment and cut their index long positions to 44%. Nifty is likely to trade extremely volatile in 19,300-19,700 range. Breakout from this zone will take Nifty to 20,000-20,200 on the upside or 19,000-18,800 on the downside. Bank Nifty is likely to trade volatile within the 44,300-45,500 range. It has resistance at 46,300-46,700 levels and support at 43,400- 43,000 levels.

What should investors do?
The IT index shows a strong reversal on weekly chart, and the relative strength indicator also indicates outperformance vis a vis Nifty. The top picks are HCLTech, Tech Mahindra from the large-cap and LTI Mindtree, and Persistent Systems from midcap. The Auto index has made a lower top and closed below a 21 exponential moving average on daily chart. The auto sector will face higher-level resistance and trade with a negative bias in the coming days. Bajaj Auto and Tata Motors are short-selling opportunities at the current level. From an investment perspective, Steelcast, Atul, Indus Towers and Metropolis are good buying opportunities currently.

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